Video Online To Dominate Global IP Traffic By 2014, Says Cisco

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CISCO, makers of really cool network things has this to say about online video: WOW that’s gonna be a lot of traffic! They’re expecting global IP traffic growth of over 30% per year carrying through 2014 with video leading the way well into the future and becoming the majority of all traffic.

CISCO is forecasting video to dominate global IP traffic (business and consumer combined) in the coming years with some major jumps and increasing yearly growth well into the middle of the decade. By 2014 they are predicting that Internet video alone will account for some 19.5 Exabytes per month. Now add in Cable VOD which will be another 9.7EB, Internet-video-to-TV at 4.1EB, IPTV VOD at 1.5EB and video calling for a meager 0.6EB (or 600PB if you prefer) and you have a grand total of some 3.8 quadrillion stone tablets… I mean, about 35 Exabytes…which translates into that many stone tablets by the way.

Check out the cool Flash graph they gave us to show you. I mean, that’s seriously cool. Here’s a chart of the various types of global IP video usage:

Now I stripped out all non-video usage from the network graph because, pfft…we don’t talk about that stuff right? We want to know all about video here at REELseo. Of course, when was the last time you say a reel being used for any kind of video (“I know, I know, but it is catchy…” says our Founder, Mark Robertson)?

In 2014, global IP traffic will reach 767 exabytes per year or 64 exabytes per month. The average monthly traffic in 2014 will be equivalent to 32 million people streaming Avatar in 3D, continuously for the entire month. That means that all forms of IP-based video will then be more than 50% of Global IP traffic. Consumers will account for 55.8EB a month while business only 8.1EB. So that means video will be about 63% (this doesn’t include any online gaming forms of video or file sharing).

In North America alone that will be 13.1EB a month for video broken down as follows:

  • Cable VOD  5.7EB
  • Internet Video 4.8EB
  • IPTV VOD 0.7EB
  • Internet-video-to-tv 1.8EB
  • Video calling 54PB (or 0.054EB)

By country it breaks down like this:

  • US 11.4EB (CVOD 5.1, IV 3.8, IPTVVOD 693PB, IVtoTV 1.64 and VC 45PB)
  • Canada 1.2EB (CVOD 511PB, IV 487PB, IPTVVOD 21PB, IVtoTV 189PB and VC 5PB)
  • Mexico 450PB (CVOD 18PB, IV 41B, IPTVVOD 2.4PB, IVtoTV 10.5PB and VC less than 4PB)

Mexico is predicted to see skyrocketing Internet video usage. 2010 is estimated at 51.7PB a month and it should shoot to 410PB per month, a rise of almost 800%. Meanwhile, Canada will rise from 172 to 487PB or almost 300% a month and the US will see a rise from 1.4EB to 3.9EB almost 300% also.

Compared to the global look at internet video which is about 4.7EB now and should hit 19.5EB a rise of about 450%.

Here’s a US-only chart for you to play with:

So for those pondering whether or not to get into the online video market, it certainly looks like there’s going to be plenty of room for it. It’s certainly not too late since CISCO is expecting 300% growth over the next half-decade.

Interesting facts compiled by CISCO (sometimes entertaining as well):

  • Global IP traffic will quadruple from 2009 to 2014. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34 percent.
  • It would take over two years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks every second in 2014.
  • It would take 72 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks during calendar year 2014.
  • Global Internet video traffic will surpass global peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic by the end of 2010, the first time since 2000, P2P traffic will not be the largest Internet traffic type.
  • The global online video community will surpass 1 billion users by the end of 2010. This number of people is exceeded only slightly by the populations of China (1.3 billion) and India (1.1 billion), making this user group equivalent to the third largest country in the world.
  • Internet video is now over one-third of all consumer Internet traffic, and will approach 40 percent of consumer Internet traffic by the end of 2010, not including the amount of video exchanged through P2P file sharing.
  • The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will continue to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic by 2014. Internet video alone will account for 57 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2014.
  • Advanced Internet video (3D and HD) will increase 23-fold between 2009 and 2014. By 2014, 3D and HD Internet video will comprise 46 percent of consumer Internet video traffic.
  • Video communications traffic growth is accelerating. Though still a small fraction of overall Internet traffic, video over instant messaging and video calling are experiencing high growth. Video communications traffic will increase sevenfold from 2009 to 2014.
  • Real-time video is growing in importance. By 2014, Internet TV will be over 8 percent of consumer Internet traffic, and ambient video will be an additional 5 percent of consumer Internet traffic. Live TV has gained substantial ground in the past few years. Globally, P2P TV is now over 280 petabytes per month.
  • Video-on-demand (VoD) traffic will double every two and a half years through 2014. Consumer IPTV and CATV traffic will grow at a 33 percent CAGR between 2009 and 2014.


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