This past January was a good one for Hollywood, although it goes to show that year-over-year comparisons for specific months is a pretty short-sighted way of looking at this particular business, which entirely relies on product.  Subjective product.  And whenever Hollywood has a comparatively bad month compared to the previous year, it is always the movie theaters that get blamed.  I could go for a million or so words about that topic, but we’re talking about online video here.  And so far, the views on YouTube have shown somewhat of a trend for how much money the movie will make over its opening weekend.

Chronicle Has An Enviable Marketing Blitz Behind It

We talked about Chronicle last week.  Fox got some YouTube stars to do some videos for them, and they got Thinkmodo once again to help them out (see below).  The awareness of Chronicle is pretty high.  It’s making a bold move to release on Super Bowl weekend, one of the biggest garbage dump weekends of the year.  First, let’s take a look at the official trailer, which has nearly 8 million views:

A 60-second TV spot also has gathered over 6 million views:

A lot of the clips Fox has released online focus on the prankster side of telekinesis, which I think is what many of us would do, especially us boys:

And this clip of the guys trying to control a baseball in mid-air:

Needless to say, Fox has gone all-out on YouTube with clips and trailers.  But then they got YouTubers like DeStorm and MrDeshawnRaw to make their own videos.  Here’s DeStorm’s again, with a cameo from Mystery Guitar Man:

But of course the big viral marketing comes from Thinkmodo, who shot this really fun video of “people flying over New York City:”

That one has over a million views…in two days.

I think this should be pretty huge for Friday and Saturday.  A lot of times these “found footage” movies disappoint and they drop off after that initial weekend.  Here’s hoping the movie is really good and sustains an audience past a couple of days.

The Woman In Black Features Daniel Radcliffe In Post-Harry Potter Action

The Woman In Black actually looks pretty good.  A well-photographed, freaky horror movie with Daniel Radcliffe in the middle.  But the combined views for its official trailer goes only a little over a million, which isn’t a good sign of this breaking out and competing with the likes of Chronicle:

I really love the glimpse of the scary face that shows up in that window.  By the way, The Woman In Black is taking a page from the Paranormal Activity, and most recently, The Devil Inside, playbook by showing audiences reacting to a screening of the movie.  Unfortunately, I can’t find that trailer anywhere online.  CBS Films does have a behind-the-scenes trailer:

And a few TV spots, including critics’ reviews:

I’m looking for a decent return for this movie, but nothing special.

Big Miracle Is A Save-The-Whales Adventure For The Whole Family

Big Miracle has the least amount of views of any trailer I’ve taken a look at this year.  Its combined total isn’t even at 500,000 views.  This may be due to the fact that Big Miracle doesn’t exactly scream Internet video marketing, but I don’t think this is going to do much anyway.  Movies like these are only trying to find a niche audience anyway, so success will not be determined on a huge opening weekend.

The official trailer:

A couple of the TV spots have a few hundred thousand views:

And there’s a featurette:

Nothing too big.  But lots of likeable actors like Drew Barrymore, John Krasinski, Kristen Bell, Tim Blake Nelson, Ted Danson, and Dermot Mulroney.  It’s based on a true story.  They might be looking for Dolphin Tale type business, which surprisingly made over $70 million domestically, although I think Dolphin Tale did a better job positioning themselves for that kind of return.

The Take For The Weekend

This is easily Chronicle‘s weekend, but it will be interesting if the interesting made-for-YouTube footage will translate into a big opening in movie theaters.  My guess is that it will.  The Woman In Black and Big Miracle will struggle but I don’t think they are looking for big weekends anyway.